Olympic Predictions

Part of my planning for covering the 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympics has involved looking at the event schedule and athletes competing, and trying to decide what I should be focusing on. My main goal is to cover our local athletes from the Sea to Sky Corridor, as well as the Whistler specific events. Other shooting commitments will keep me in the Vancouver for most of the games, so it looks like i will covering mostly the events at Cypress Mountain where local athletes have the best chance of capturing some precious medals. Unfortunately i don't think i will make it out to the Whistler Olympic Park, where we don't really have any local athletes competing, and little chance of podium finishes.

In researching who are the favorites in each event, i figured why not have some fun and post my olympic predictions. Please keep in mind that i am by no means an expert in any of these sports, just a huge fan of the games, and followed the winter sports a lot closer ever since Vancouver was given the games. These predictions are primarily based on world cup standings, but a bit of home court advantage and favoritism plays a role as well.

The Canadian Olympic Committee is predicting that it will take at least 28 medals to win the medal count, and they think Canada can achieve this. Sports Illustrated is predicting Canada will take home 10 gold, 11 silver, and 9 bronze medals, This will place Canada 2nd overall behind Germany's predicted 35 medals. But i am predicting Canada will win a total of 10 gold, 13 silver, and 11 bronze medals, for a total of 34. This will put us in first overall, ahead of the Germans, with the United States coming in third.

So who's going to take home these medals? Well lets start with the easy ones, Ice hockey and curling, although you will not like these predictions. Both the mens and women's Ice hockey teams will take home the silver, with the Russians on the mens side and the Americans on the women's side taking home the gold. In curling, we will get one gold and one silver, with the ladies most likely to get the gold.

Unfortunately, I don't see any medals in the biathlon, cross country, nordic combined or ski jumping. we have lots of up and comers, but I just don't see any real hopefuls. I am very excited however about Brian McKeever, who is legally blind, as he becomes the first Paralympian to compete in the Olympics.

As for the Whistler events, in alpine skiing, I have Manuel Osborne-Paradis grabbing the silver in the downhill on February 13th, and if not him, then Emily Brydon will pick up the lone medal for the Alpine team when she takes her turn at the downhill on the 17th. In bobsled, Kaillie Humphries, who's ranked 2nd in the 2 woman event, will take the silver. For the men, we have both Lyndon Rush and Pierre Lueders competing in both the 2 man and 4 man events, although none of these sleds are ranked in the top 5, they will take home at least 1 bronze medal between them. In the womens Luge, I have Alex Gough taking the bronze. For the skeleton event, Melissa Hollingsworth is ranked #1 in the world and is the favorite to take the Gold. I predict another bronze medal, either by Amy Gough on the womens side, or Jon Montgomery, Jeff Pain, or Michael Douglas on the mens.

I probably know the least about figure skating, so this is a shot in the dark, but my guess is a silver, either by Joannie Rochette or by the ice dancing team of Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir.

Now we are getting to the fun stuff. There may not be a lot of snow on Cypress Mountain, but this will be where our locals shine. While Jennifer Heil becomes Canada's first ever gold medalist on home soil in the womens Moguls on Feb 13th, Kristi Richards of Pemberton will take the bronze. Alexandre Bilodeau will come away with the silver for the men. This will not be our year in the aerials, where our men are ranked 8th, 9th, 11th and 12th. In the mens skicross, we have a shot with Chris Delbosco, currently ranked 3rd, as well as David Duncan and Stanley Hayer, ranked 7th and 8th. My prediction here is another bronze. Whistler's own Ashleigh McIvor will bring home the womens skicross gold medal to the biggest party Whistler has ever seen on February 23rd, unless Maelle Ricker beats her to it in the boardercross.

Speaking of home town favorites, I would have had Julia Murray, also of Whistler, as the silver medallist here, but she is coming off a partial ACL tear in her knee on Jan 22nd, and while she does plan to compete, it would be an incredible story if she had some success. I remember being moved to tears while covering the original Olympic bid process back in 2003. I witnessed a then 14 year old Julia Murray stand nervously before a group of International Olympic Committee members and other dignitaries as part of a presentation to boost Vancouver's chances of winning their bid for the Games.

"I told them about my dream to be in the Olympics in 2010 and race down my Dad's downhill run in Whistler," said Murray, referring to the course named for her father, the legendary Dave Murray of the Crazy Canucks. She has since shifted her focus on the new sport of ski cross, but she remains part of a great skiing legacy.

As for the snowboarders, another local girl will take home a gold medal in the womens snowboard cross(SBX). Maelle Ricker will be first across the line followed by Dominique Maltais with a bronze. Jasey-jay Anderson will take the silver in the parallel giant slalom(PGS). We will also get one more bronze medal from the snowboarders, either by Michael Lambert in the PGS, Robert Fagan in the SBX, Justin Lamoureux in the mens halfpipe or Mecedes Nicoll, also of Whistler in the womens halfpipe.

In the short track speed skating, we will get 2 golds, 4 silver, and 2 bronze with Charles Hamelin leading the way taking a gold in the 500m and the 5000m relay, and a silver in the 1000m and 1500m events. While his brother Francois hamelin will take the bronze in the 1000m and Francois-Louis Tremblay will take another bronze in the 500m. The womens team will take a silver in the 3000m relay and Kalyna Roberge will take a silver in the 500m.

Our biggest success will come at the Long track speed skating oval in Richmond. Christine Nesbitt will become the darling of the games, and will carry the flag at the closing ceremonies after becoming a triple gold medalist, with victories in the 1000m, 1500m and the team pursuit. Kristina Groves will also be a triple medalist with the complete set, a gold from the team pursuit, a silver in the 1500m and a bronze in either the 1000m or the 3000m, as for the men, they will take a Bronze in the team pursuit, and Dennis Morrison will grab a bronze in either the 1000m or the 1500m.

So there you have it. My predictions for the most successful winter olympics Canada has ever seen.